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Debrecen II vs Hidasnémeti — NB III - Northeast 2019

Debrecen II
Debrecen II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hidasnémeti
Hidasnémeti
4/17/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 31Nagyerdei Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Debrecen II66%
×Draw17%
Hidasnémeti17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Debrecen II
2.62
Hidasnémeti
1.27

Debrecen II creates 106% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 19 away

creates per match

Debrecen II
2.03
Hidasnémeti
1.16

allows per match

Debrecen II
1.38
Hidasnémeti
3.21

finishing

Debrecen II+0.00on par
Hidasnémeti+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Debrecen II ↓

Hidasnémeti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Debrecen II or draw
83%
Debrecen II or Hidasnémeti
83%
Draw or Hidasnémeti
34%

Winning margin

Debrecen II wins by 2+
45%
Hidasnémeti wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Debrecen II 1+ goals
93%
Debrecen II 2+ goals
73%
Debrecen II 3+ goals
48%
Hidasnémeti 1+ goals
72%
Hidasnémeti 2+ goals
36%
Hidasnémeti 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Debrecen II (draw refunded)
80%
Hidasnémeti (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Debrecen II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

Hidasnémeti away — creates 1.16, concedes 3.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Debrecen II attack 2.03 + Hidasnémeti defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.62

Hidasnémeti attack 1.16 + Debrecen II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Debrecen II scores more
66%
level
17%
Hidasnémeti scores more
17%

Debrecen II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Debrecen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Debrecen II vs Hidasnémeti

Debrecen II beat Hidasnémeti 3-0 in NB III - Northeast on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Nagyerdei Stadion in Debrecen.