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Debibi United vs Legon Cities — Division One League 2025

Debibi United
Debibi United
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Legon Cities
Legon Cities
3/1/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Debibi United82%
×Draw12%
Legon Cities6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Debibi United
2.79
Legon Cities
0.61

Debibi United creates 357% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Debibi United
2.43
Legon Cities
0.79

allows per match

Debibi United
0.43
Legon Cities
3.14

finishing

Debibi United+0.00on par
Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Debibi United ↓

Legon Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Debibi United or draw
94%
Debibi United or Legon Cities
88%
Draw or Legon Cities
18%

Winning margin

Debibi United wins by 2+
62%
Legon Cities wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Debibi United 1+ goals
94%
Debibi United 2+ goals
76%
Debibi United 3+ goals
52%
Legon Cities 1+ goals
46%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
13%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Debibi United (draw refunded)
93%
Legon Cities (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Debibi United at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.43 · 14 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.79, concedes 3.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Debibi United attack 2.43 + Legon Cities defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.79

Legon Cities attack 0.79 + Debibi United defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Debibi United scores more
82%
level
12%
Legon Cities scores more
6%

Debibi United at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Debibi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Debibi United 4–0 Legon Cities

Debibi United beat Legon Cities 4-0 in Division One League on March 1, 2026.