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Debibi United vs Berekum Arsenal — Division One League 2025

Debibi United
Debibi United
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Berekum Arsenal
Berekum Arsenal
4/12/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Debibi United77%
×Draw15%
Berekum Arsenal8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Debibi United
2.53
Berekum Arsenal
0.71

Debibi United creates 256% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Debibi United
2.43
Berekum Arsenal
1.00

allows per match

Debibi United
0.43
Berekum Arsenal
2.62

finishing

Debibi United+0.00on par
Berekum Arsenal+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Debibi United ↓

Berekum Arsenal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Debibi United or draw
92%
Debibi United or Berekum Arsenal
85%
Draw or Berekum Arsenal
23%

Winning margin

Debibi United wins by 2+
54%
Berekum Arsenal wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Debibi United 1+ goals
92%
Debibi United 2+ goals
71%
Debibi United 3+ goals
46%
Berekum Arsenal 1+ goals
51%
Berekum Arsenal 2+ goals
16%
Berekum Arsenal 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Debibi United (draw refunded)
90%
Berekum Arsenal (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Debibi United at home — creates 2.43, concedes 0.43 · 14 matches

Berekum Arsenal away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Debibi United attack 2.43 + Berekum Arsenal defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.53

Berekum Arsenal attack 1.00 + Debibi United defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Debibi United scores more
77%
level
15%
Berekum Arsenal scores more
8%

Debibi United at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Debibi United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Debibi United 4–0 Berekum Arsenal

Debibi United beat Berekum Arsenal 4-0 in Division One League on April 12, 2026.