Deacons 1–3 UWI Blackbirds: Result & Stats

Deacons

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

UWI Blackbirds

4/4/2025

Premier League · Round 6Friendship Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Deacons25%

×Draw22%

UWI Blackbirds54%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DeaconsExpected goals in this matchUWI Blackbirds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

2.00

Deacons

1.29

UWI Blackbirds

2.00

UWI Blackbirds creates 55% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.16

creates per match

1.47

2.53

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Deacons

1.16

UWI Blackbirds

1.47

allows per match

Deacons

2.53

UWI Blackbirds

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deacons+0.00on par

UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deacons ↓

UWI Blackbirds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Deacons or draw

46%

Deacons or UWI Blackbirds

78%

Draw or UWI Blackbirds

75%

Winning margin

Deacons wins by 2+

10%

UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Deacons 1+ goals

72%

Deacons 2+ goals

37%

Deacons 3+ goals

14%

UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals

86%

UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals

59%

UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Deacons (draw refunded)

31%

UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deacons at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

UWI Blackbirds away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deacons attack 1.16 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.47 + Deacons defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Deacons scores more

25%

level

22%

UWI Blackbirds scores more

54%

UWI Blackbirds at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "UWI Blackbirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff