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Deacons vs UWI Blackbirds — Premier League 2019

Deacons
Deacons
CANC
23:00
UWI Blackbirds
UWI Blackbirds
6/20/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Deacons34%
×Draw22%
UWI Blackbirds44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deacons
1.61
UWI Blackbirds
1.85

UWI Blackbirds creates 15% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 37 away

creates per match

Deacons
1.64
UWI Blackbirds
1.59

allows per match

Deacons
2.12
UWI Blackbirds
1.59

finishing

Deacons+0.00on par
UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deacons ↓

UWI Blackbirds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Deacons or draw
56%
Deacons or UWI Blackbirds
78%
Draw or UWI Blackbirds
66%

Winning margin

Deacons wins by 2+
16%
UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Deacons 1+ goals
80%
Deacons 2+ goals
48%
Deacons 3+ goals
22%
UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals
84%
UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals
55%
UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Deacons (draw refunded)
44%
UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deacons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.12 · 33 matches

UWI Blackbirds away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deacons attack 1.64 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.61

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.59 + Deacons defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Deacons scores more
34%
level
22%
UWI Blackbirds scores more
44%

UWI Blackbirds at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "UWI Blackbirds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Deacons face UWI Blackbirds (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Deacons hosting UWI Blackbirds. Match starts June 20, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Deacons host UWI Blackbirds at Wildey Turf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.