Deacons 1–3 St. Andrew Lions: Result & Stats

Deacons

FT

1 – 3

St. Andrew Lions

7/19/2023

Premier League · Round 11Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Deacons46%

×Draw20%

St. Andrew Lions34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DeaconsExpected goals in this matchSt. Andrew Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.90

Deacons

2.23

St. Andrew Lions

1.90

Deacons creates 17% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 27 away

1.64

creates per match

1.67

2.12

allows per match

2.81

creates per match

Deacons

1.64

St. Andrew Lions

1.67

allows per match

Deacons

2.12

St. Andrew Lions

2.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deacons+0.00on par

St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deacons ↓

St. Andrew Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Deacons or draw

66%

Deacons or St. Andrew Lions

80%

Draw or St. Andrew Lions

54%

Winning margin

Deacons wins by 2+

27%

St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Deacons 1+ goals

89%

Deacons 2+ goals

65%

Deacons 3+ goals

38%

St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals

85%

St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals

56%

St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Deacons (draw refunded)

58%

St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deacons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.12 · 33 matches

St. Andrew Lions away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deacons attack 1.64 + St. Andrew Lions defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.23

St. Andrew Lions attack 1.67 + Deacons defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Deacons scores more

46%

level

20%

St. Andrew Lions scores more

34%

Deacons at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deacons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff