Deacons 3–2 Notre Dame: Result & Stats

Deacons

FT

3 – 2

Notre Dame

8/11/2023

Premier League · Round 13Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Deacons35%

×Draw20%

Notre Dame45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DeaconsExpected goals in this matchNotre Dame

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

2.24

Deacons

1.96

Notre Dame

2.24

Notre Dame creates 14% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

1.64

creates per match

2.35

2.12

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Deacons

1.64

Notre Dame

2.35

allows per match

Deacons

2.12

Notre Dame

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deacons+0.00on par

Notre Dame+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deacons ↓

Notre Dame →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Deacons or draw

55%

Deacons or Notre Dame

80%

Draw or Notre Dame

65%

Winning margin

Deacons wins by 2+

18%

Notre Dame wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Deacons 1+ goals

86%

Deacons 2+ goals

58%

Deacons 3+ goals

31%

Notre Dame 1+ goals

89%

Notre Dame 2+ goals

65%

Notre Dame 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Deacons (draw refunded)

44%

Notre Dame (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deacons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.12 · 33 matches

Notre Dame away — creates 2.35, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deacons attack 1.64 + Notre Dame defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.96

Notre Dame attack 2.35 + Deacons defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deacons scores more

35%

level

20%

Notre Dame scores more

45%

Notre Dame at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Notre Dame will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff