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Deacons vs Ellerton — Premier League 2019

Deacons
Deacons
FT
0 – 2
Ellerton
Ellerton
1/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Deacons27%
×Draw21%
Ellerton52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deacons
1.50
Ellerton
2.15

Ellerton creates 43% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 41 away

creates per match

Deacons
1.64
Ellerton
2.17

allows per match

Deacons
2.12
Ellerton
1.37

finishing

Deacons+0.00on par
Ellerton+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deacons ↓

Ellerton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Deacons or draw
48%
Deacons or Ellerton
79%
Draw or Ellerton
73%

Winning margin

Deacons wins by 2+
12%
Ellerton wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Deacons 1+ goals
78%
Deacons 2+ goals
44%
Deacons 3+ goals
19%
Ellerton 1+ goals
88%
Ellerton 2+ goals
63%
Ellerton 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Deacons (draw refunded)
34%
Ellerton (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deacons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.12 · 33 matches

Ellerton away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deacons attack 1.64 + Ellerton defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ellerton attack 2.17 + Deacons defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Deacons scores more
27%
level
21%
Ellerton scores more
52%

Ellerton at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ellerton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deacons vs Ellerton

Ellerton beat Deacons 2-0 in Premier League on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.