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Deacons vs Barbados Soccer Academy — Premier League 2019

Deacons
Deacons
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Barbados Soccer Academy
Barbados Soccer Academy
1/30/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Deacons61%
×Draw18%
Barbados Soccer Academy21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deacons
2.54
Barbados Soccer Academy
1.45

Deacons creates 75% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 9 away

creates per match

Deacons
1.64
Barbados Soccer Academy
0.78

allows per match

Deacons
2.12
Barbados Soccer Academy
3.44

finishing

Deacons+0.00on par
Barbados Soccer Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deacons ↓

Barbados Soccer Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Deacons or draw
79%
Deacons or Barbados Soccer Academy
82%
Draw or Barbados Soccer Academy
39%

Winning margin

Deacons wins by 2+
40%
Barbados Soccer Academy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deacons 1+ goals
92%
Deacons 2+ goals
72%
Deacons 3+ goals
46%
Barbados Soccer Academy 1+ goals
77%
Barbados Soccer Academy 2+ goals
42%
Barbados Soccer Academy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Deacons (draw refunded)
74%
Barbados Soccer Academy (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deacons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.12 · 33 matches

Barbados Soccer Academy away — creates 0.78, concedes 3.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deacons attack 1.64 + Barbados Soccer Academy defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.54

Barbados Soccer Academy attack 0.78 + Deacons defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Deacons scores more
61%
level
18%
Barbados Soccer Academy scores more
21%

Deacons at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Deacons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Deacons 4–1 Barbados Soccer Academy

Deacons beat Barbados Soccer Academy 4-1 in Premier League on January 30, 2024.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.