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DEAC vs Salgótarjáni BTC — NB III - Northeast 2019

DEAC
DEAC
FT
1 – 1
Salgótarjáni BTC
Salgótarjáni BTC
7/30/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 1Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

DEAC67%
×Draw20%
Salgótarjáni BTC14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEAC
2.08
Salgótarjáni BTC
0.81

DEAC creates 157% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 49 away

creates per match

DEAC
2.25
Salgótarjáni BTC
0.86

allows per match

DEAC
0.76
Salgótarjáni BTC
1.92

finishing

DEAC+0.00on par
Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEAC ↓

Salgótarjáni BTC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

DEAC or draw
86%
DEAC or Salgótarjáni BTC
80%
Draw or Salgótarjáni BTC
33%

Winning margin

DEAC wins by 2+
42%
Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

DEAC 1+ goals
87%
DEAC 2+ goals
61%
DEAC 3+ goals
34%
Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals
56%
Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals
19%
Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

DEAC (draw refunded)
83%
Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEAC at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.76 · 91 matches

Salgótarjáni BTC away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEAC attack 2.25 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.08

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 0.86 + DEAC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

DEAC scores more
67%
level
20%
Salgótarjáni BTC scores more
14%

DEAC at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "DEAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: DEAC vs Salgótarjáni BTC

DEAC and Salgótarjáni BTC drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion in Debrecen.