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DEAC vs Karcag SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

DEAC
DEAC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Karcag SE
Karcag SE
5/26/2024NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Northeast - 30Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

DEAC53%
×Draw24%
Karcag SE23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEAC
1.76
Karcag SE
1.08

DEAC creates 63% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 49 away

creates per match

DEAC
2.25
Karcag SE
1.41

allows per match

DEAC
0.76
Karcag SE
1.27

finishing

DEAC+0.00on par
Karcag SE+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEAC ↓

Karcag SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

DEAC or draw
77%
DEAC or Karcag SE
76%
Draw or Karcag SE
47%

Winning margin

DEAC wins by 2+
29%
Karcag SE wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

DEAC 1+ goals
83%
DEAC 2+ goals
52%
DEAC 3+ goals
26%
Karcag SE 1+ goals
66%
Karcag SE 2+ goals
29%
Karcag SE 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

DEAC (draw refunded)
70%
Karcag SE (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEAC at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.76 · 91 matches

Karcag SE away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEAC attack 2.25 + Karcag SE defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.76

Karcag SE attack 1.41 + DEAC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

DEAC scores more
53%
level
24%
Karcag SE scores more
23%

DEAC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "DEAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DEAC 2 – 2 Karcag SE

DEAC and Karcag SE drew 2-2 in NB III - Northeast on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion in Debrecen.