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DEAC vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

DEAC
DEAC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
B. Trencsenyi 17'
M. Korhut 4'
4/16/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 32Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

DEAC54%
×Draw22%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

DEAC
1.89
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.15

DEAC creates 64% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 38 away

creates per match

DEAC
2.25
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

allows per match

DEAC
0.76
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

finishing

DEAC+0.00on par
Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

DEAC ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

DEAC or draw
77%
DEAC or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
78%
Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
46%

Winning margin

DEAC wins by 2+
31%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

DEAC 1+ goals
85%
DEAC 2+ goals
56%
DEAC 3+ goals
29%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
68%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
32%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

DEAC (draw refunded)
70%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

DEAC at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.76 · 91 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

DEAC attack 2.25 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.89

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + DEAC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

DEAC scores more
54%
level
22%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
23%

DEAC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "DEAC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
M. Korhut
17'
B. Trencsenyi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: DEAC 2–0 Hajdúszoboszlói SE

DEAC beat Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2-0 in NB III - Northeast on April 16, 2023.

Goals: M. Korhut (4'), B. Trencsenyi (17').

The match was played at Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion in Debrecen.