De Treffers 2–5 Sparta Rotterdam II: Result & Stats

De Treffers

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Sparta Rotterdam II

11/9/2024

Tweede Divisie · Round 12Sportpark Zuid veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

De Treffers44%

×Draw22%

Sparta Rotterdam II33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

De TreffersExpected goals in this matchSparta Rotterdam II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.58

De Treffers

1.84

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.58

De Treffers creates 16% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 101 away

1.82

creates per match

1.77

1.39

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

De Treffers

1.82

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.77

allows per match

De Treffers

1.39

Sparta Rotterdam II

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

De Treffers+0.00on par

Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Treffers ↓

Sparta Rotterdam II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

De Treffers or draw

67%

De Treffers or Sparta Rotterdam II

78%

Draw or Sparta Rotterdam II

56%

Winning margin

De Treffers wins by 2+

24%

Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

De Treffers 1+ goals

84%

De Treffers 2+ goals

55%

De Treffers 3+ goals

28%

Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals

79%

Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals

47%

Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

De Treffers (draw refunded)

57%

Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Treffers at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.39 · 99 matches

Sparta Rotterdam II away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.86 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Treffers attack 1.82 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.84

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.77 + De Treffers defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

De Treffers scores more

44%

level

22%

Sparta Rotterdam II scores more

33%

De Treffers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "De Treffers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff