Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

De Treffers vs Noordwijk — Tweede Divisie 2019

De Treffers
De Treffers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Noordwijk
Noordwijk
1/25/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 20Sportpark Zuid veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

De Treffers45%
×Draw23%
Noordwijk32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

De Treffers
1.73
Noordwijk
1.42

De Treffers creates 22% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 85 away

creates per match

De Treffers
1.82
Noordwijk
1.46

allows per match

De Treffers
1.39
Noordwijk
1.65

finishing

De Treffers+0.00on par
Noordwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Treffers ↓

Noordwijk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

De Treffers or draw
68%
De Treffers or Noordwijk
77%
Draw or Noordwijk
55%

Winning margin

De Treffers wins by 2+
24%
Noordwijk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

De Treffers 1+ goals
82%
De Treffers 2+ goals
52%
De Treffers 3+ goals
25%
Noordwijk 1+ goals
76%
Noordwijk 2+ goals
41%
Noordwijk 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

De Treffers (draw refunded)
59%
Noordwijk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Treffers at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.39 · 99 matches

Noordwijk away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Treffers attack 1.82 + Noordwijk defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.73

Noordwijk attack 1.46 + De Treffers defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

De Treffers scores more
45%
level
23%
Noordwijk scores more
32%

De Treffers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "De Treffers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: De Treffers 2–0 Noordwijk

De Treffers beat Noordwijk 2-0 in Tweede Divisie on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Zuid veld 1 in Groesbeek.