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De Treffers vs GVVV Veenendaal — Tweede Divisie 2019

De Treffers
De Treffers
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
GVVV Veenendaal
GVVV Veenendaal
3/9/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 19Sportpark Zuid veld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

De Treffers48%
×Draw23%
GVVV Veenendaal29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

De Treffers
1.83
GVVV Veenendaal
1.38

De Treffers creates 33% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 86 away

creates per match

De Treffers
1.82
GVVV Veenendaal
1.36

allows per match

De Treffers
1.39
GVVV Veenendaal
1.85

finishing

De Treffers+0.00on par
GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Treffers ↓

GVVV Veenendaal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

De Treffers or draw
71%
De Treffers or GVVV Veenendaal
77%
Draw or GVVV Veenendaal
52%

Winning margin

De Treffers wins by 2+
26%
GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

De Treffers 1+ goals
84%
De Treffers 2+ goals
54%
De Treffers 3+ goals
28%
GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals
75%
GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals
40%
GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

De Treffers (draw refunded)
62%
GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Treffers at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.39 · 99 matches

GVVV Veenendaal away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.85 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Treffers attack 1.82 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

GVVV Veenendaal attack 1.36 + De Treffers defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

De Treffers scores more
48%
level
23%
GVVV Veenendaal scores more
29%

De Treffers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "De Treffers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: De Treffers 1–4 GVVV Veenendaal

GVVV Veenendaal beat De Treffers 4-1 in Tweede Divisie on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Zuid veld 1 in Groesbeek.