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De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax — Eerste Divisie 2018

De Graafschap
De Graafschap
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Jong Ajax
Jong Ajax
3/11/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 31Stadion De Vijverberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

De Graafschap52%
×Draw22%
Jong Ajax25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

De Graafschap
1.94
Jong Ajax
1.29

De Graafschap creates 50% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 148 away

creates per match

De Graafschap
1.85
Jong Ajax
1.48

allows per match

De Graafschap
1.11
Jong Ajax
2.03

finishing

De Graafschap+0.00on par
Jong Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap ↓

Jong Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

De Graafschap or draw
75%
De Graafschap or Jong Ajax
78%
Draw or Jong Ajax
48%

Winning margin

De Graafschap wins by 2+
30%
Jong Ajax wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

De Graafschap 1+ goals
86%
De Graafschap 2+ goals
58%
De Graafschap 3+ goals
30%
Jong Ajax 1+ goals
72%
Jong Ajax 2+ goals
37%
Jong Ajax 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap (draw refunded)
67%
Jong Ajax (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.11 · 131 matches

Jong Ajax away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.03 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap attack 1.85 + Jong Ajax defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.94

Jong Ajax attack 1.48 + De Graafschap defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

De Graafschap scores more
52%
level
22%
Jong Ajax scores more
25%

De Graafschap at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: De Graafschap vs Jong Ajax

Jong Ajax beat De Graafschap 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on March 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion De Vijverberg in Doetinchem.