De Graafschap 0–5 Heerenveen: Result & Stats

De Graafschap

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Heerenveen

J. Hornkamp 88'

M. Vlap 40', 36'

S. Lammers 28', 25'

10/6/2018

Eredivisie · Round 8De Vijverberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

De Graafschap42%

×Draw24%

Heerenveen35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

De GraafschapExpected goals in this matchHeerenveen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.50

De Graafschap

1.67

Heerenveen

1.50

De Graafschap creates 11% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 135 away

1.43

creates per match

1.33

1.67

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

De Graafschap

1.43

Heerenveen

1.33

allows per match

De Graafschap

1.67

Heerenveen

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

De Graafschap+0.00on par

Heerenveen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap ↓

Heerenveen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

De Graafschap or draw

65%

De Graafschap or Heerenveen

76%

Draw or Heerenveen

58%

Winning margin

De Graafschap wins by 2+

21%

Heerenveen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

De Graafschap 1+ goals

81%

De Graafschap 2+ goals

50%

De Graafschap 3+ goals

23%

Heerenveen 1+ goals

78%

Heerenveen 2+ goals

44%

Heerenveen 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap (draw refunded)

55%

Heerenveen (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

Heerenveen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.90 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap attack 1.43 + Heerenveen defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Heerenveen attack 1.33 + De Graafschap defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

De Graafschap scores more

42%

level

24%

Heerenveen scores more

35%

De Graafschap at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "De Graafschap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

A. Zeneli

Heerenveen · F

9.3

Match Events

25'

S. Lammers↳ S. Floranus

28'

S. Lammers↳ A. Zeneli

36'

M. Vlap↳ A. Zeneli

40'

M. Vlap↳ Y. Kobayashi

46'

J. Vet← J. Thomassen

51'

Erik Bakker

69'

M. Hamdaoui← S. Nijland

74'

D. Burgzorg← D. van Mieghem

74'

R. Kongolo← M. Thorsby

81'

P. van Amersfoort← M. Vlap

87'

J. Hornkamp← S. Lammers

88'

J. Hornkamp↳ A. Zeneli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeHeerenveen

Overview

39%Possession61%

8Total Shots24

1Corners6

12Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots24

1On Target14

4Off Target4

3Blocked6

6Inside Box13

2Outside Box11

Passing

39%Possession61%

342Total Passes524

273Accurate Passes454

80%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

9Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2