Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

De Graafschap U21 vs Willem II U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

De Graafschap U21
De Graafschap U21
FT
4 – 1
Willem II U21
Willem II U21
2/7/2026U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

De Graafschap U2154%
×Draw21%
Willem II U2125%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

De Graafschap U21
2.16
Willem II U21
1.42

De Graafschap U21 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 24 away

creates per match

De Graafschap U21
2.31
Willem II U21
1.46

allows per match

De Graafschap U21
1.39
Willem II U21
2.00

finishing

De Graafschap U21+0.00on par
Willem II U21+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap U21 ↓

Willem II U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

De Graafschap U21 or draw
75%
De Graafschap U21 or Willem II U21
79%
Draw or Willem II U21
46%

Winning margin

De Graafschap U21 wins by 2+
33%
Willem II U21 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

De Graafschap U21 1+ goals
88%
De Graafschap U21 2+ goals
63%
De Graafschap U21 3+ goals
36%
Willem II U21 1+ goals
76%
Willem II U21 2+ goals
41%
Willem II U21 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap U21 (draw refunded)
68%
Willem II U21 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap U21 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.39 · 49 matches

Willem II U21 away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap U21 attack 2.31 + Willem II U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.16

Willem II U21 attack 1.46 + De Graafschap U21 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

De Graafschap U21 scores more
54%
level
21%
Willem II U21 scores more
25%

De Graafschap U21 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "De Graafschap U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: De Graafschap U21 vs Willem II U21

De Graafschap U21 beat Willem II U21 4-1 in U21 Divisie 1 on February 7, 2026.