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De Graafschap U21 vs PEC Zwolle U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

De Graafschap U21
De Graafschap U21
FT
1 – 0
PEC Zwolle U21
PEC Zwolle U21
12/6/2025U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

De Graafschap U2154%
×Draw22%
PEC Zwolle U2124%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

De Graafschap U21
1.97
PEC Zwolle U21
1.26

De Graafschap U21 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 39 away

creates per match

De Graafschap U21
2.31
PEC Zwolle U21
1.13

allows per match

De Graafschap U21
1.39
PEC Zwolle U21
1.62

finishing

De Graafschap U21+0.00on par
PEC Zwolle U21+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap U21 ↓

PEC Zwolle U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

De Graafschap U21 or draw
76%
De Graafschap U21 or PEC Zwolle U21
78%
Draw or PEC Zwolle U21
46%

Winning margin

De Graafschap U21 wins by 2+
31%
PEC Zwolle U21 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

De Graafschap U21 1+ goals
86%
De Graafschap U21 2+ goals
58%
De Graafschap U21 3+ goals
31%
PEC Zwolle U21 1+ goals
72%
PEC Zwolle U21 2+ goals
36%
PEC Zwolle U21 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap U21 (draw refunded)
69%
PEC Zwolle U21 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap U21 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.39 · 49 matches

PEC Zwolle U21 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap U21 attack 2.31 + PEC Zwolle U21 defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.97

PEC Zwolle U21 attack 1.13 + De Graafschap U21 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

De Graafschap U21 scores more
54%
level
22%
PEC Zwolle U21 scores more
24%

De Graafschap U21 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "De Graafschap U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: De Graafschap U21 1–0 PEC Zwolle U21

De Graafschap U21 beat PEC Zwolle U21 1-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on December 6, 2025.