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De Graafschap U21 vs NEC U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

De Graafschap U21
De Graafschap U21
FT
5 – 2
NEC U21
NEC U21
6/1/2024U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Spring Season - 14Sportpark De Bezelhorst Veld 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

De Graafschap U2156%
×Draw20%
NEC U2124%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

De Graafschap U21
2.21
NEC U21
1.40

De Graafschap U21 creates 58% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 19 away

creates per match

De Graafschap U21
2.31
NEC U21
1.42

allows per match

De Graafschap U21
1.39
NEC U21
2.11

finishing

De Graafschap U21+0.00on par
NEC U21+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap U21 ↓

NEC U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

De Graafschap U21 or draw
76%
De Graafschap U21 or NEC U21
80%
Draw or NEC U21
44%

Winning margin

De Graafschap U21 wins by 2+
34%
NEC U21 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

De Graafschap U21 1+ goals
89%
De Graafschap U21 2+ goals
65%
De Graafschap U21 3+ goals
38%
NEC U21 1+ goals
75%
NEC U21 2+ goals
41%
NEC U21 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap U21 (draw refunded)
70%
NEC U21 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap U21 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.39 · 49 matches

NEC U21 away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap U21 attack 2.31 + NEC U21 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.21

NEC U21 attack 1.42 + De Graafschap U21 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

De Graafschap U21 scores more
56%
level
20%
NEC U21 scores more
24%

De Graafschap U21 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "De Graafschap U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: De Graafschap U21 vs NEC U21

De Graafschap U21 beat NEC U21 5-2 in U21 Divisie 1 on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Bezelhorst Veld 6 in Doetinchem.