De Graafschap U21 1–2 NAC U21: Result & Stats

De Graafschap U21

FT

1 – 2

NAC U21

9/7/2024

U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 6Sportpark De Bezelhorst Veld 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

De Graafschap U2156%

×Draw20%

NAC U2125%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

De Graafschap U21Expected goals in this matchNAC U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.54

De Graafschap U21

2.37

NAC U21

1.54

De Graafschap U21 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 26 away

2.31

creates per match

1.69

1.39

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

De Graafschap U21

2.31

NAC U21

1.69

allows per match

De Graafschap U21

1.39

NAC U21

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

De Graafschap U21+0.00on par

NAC U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap U21 ↓

NAC U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

De Graafschap U21 or draw

75%

De Graafschap U21 or NAC U21

80%

Draw or NAC U21

44%

Winning margin

De Graafschap U21 wins by 2+

35%

NAC U21 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

De Graafschap U21 1+ goals

91%

De Graafschap U21 2+ goals

68%

De Graafschap U21 3+ goals

42%

NAC U21 1+ goals

79%

NAC U21 2+ goals

45%

NAC U21 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap U21 (draw refunded)

69%

NAC U21 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap U21 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.39 · 49 matches

NAC U21 away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap U21 attack 2.31 + NAC U21 defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.37

NAC U21 attack 1.69 + De Graafschap U21 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

De Graafschap U21 scores more

56%

level

20%

NAC U21 scores more

25%

De Graafschap U21 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "De Graafschap U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff