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De Graafschap U21 vs Emmen U21 — U21 Divisie 1 2020

De Graafschap U21
De Graafschap U21
FT
6 – 0
Emmen U21
Emmen U21
9/17/2022U21 Divisie 1U21 Divisie 1 · Fall Season - 3Sportpark De Bezelhorst Veld 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

De Graafschap U2176%
×Draw14%
Emmen U2110%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

De Graafschap U21
2.80
Emmen U21
0.91

De Graafschap U21 creates 208% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 7 away

creates per match

De Graafschap U21
2.31
Emmen U21
0.43

allows per match

De Graafschap U21
1.39
Emmen U21
3.29

finishing

De Graafschap U21+0.00on par
Emmen U21+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

De Graafschap U21 ↓

Emmen U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

De Graafschap U21 or draw
90%
De Graafschap U21 or Emmen U21
86%
Draw or Emmen U21
24%

Winning margin

De Graafschap U21 wins by 2+
55%
Emmen U21 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

De Graafschap U21 1+ goals
94%
De Graafschap U21 2+ goals
76%
De Graafschap U21 3+ goals
52%
Emmen U21 1+ goals
60%
Emmen U21 2+ goals
23%
Emmen U21 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

De Graafschap U21 (draw refunded)
89%
Emmen U21 (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

De Graafschap U21 at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.39 · 49 matches

Emmen U21 away — creates 0.43, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

De Graafschap U21 attack 2.31 + Emmen U21 defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.80

Emmen U21 attack 0.43 + De Graafschap U21 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

De Graafschap U21 scores more
76%
level
14%
Emmen U21 scores more
10%

De Graafschap U21 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "De Graafschap U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U21 Divisie 1: De Graafschap U21 6–0 Emmen U21

De Graafschap U21 beat Emmen U21 6-0 in U21 Divisie 1 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Bezelhorst Veld 6 in Doetinchem.