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Daytona vs Lakeland Tropics — USL League Two 2018

Daytona
Daytona
FT
3 – 2
Lakeland Tropics
Lakeland Tropics
6/25/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 2Daytona Beach Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Daytona56%
×Draw22%
Lakeland Tropics23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Daytona
2.00
Lakeland Tropics
1.20

Daytona creates 67% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Daytona
1.40
Lakeland Tropics
1.40

allows per match

Daytona
1.00
Lakeland Tropics
2.60

finishing

Daytona+0.00on par
Lakeland Tropics+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Daytona ↓

Lakeland Tropics →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Daytona or draw
77%
Daytona or Lakeland Tropics
78%
Draw or Lakeland Tropics
44%

Winning margin

Daytona wins by 2+
33%
Lakeland Tropics wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Daytona 1+ goals
86%
Daytona 2+ goals
59%
Daytona 3+ goals
32%
Lakeland Tropics 1+ goals
70%
Lakeland Tropics 2+ goals
34%
Lakeland Tropics 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Daytona (draw refunded)
71%
Lakeland Tropics (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Daytona at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Lakeland Tropics away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Daytona attack 1.40 + Lakeland Tropics defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.00

Lakeland Tropics attack 1.40 + Daytona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Daytona scores more
56%
level
22%
Lakeland Tropics scores more
23%

Daytona at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Daytona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Daytona 3–2 Lakeland Tropics

Daytona beat Lakeland Tropics 3-2 in USL League Two on June 25, 2019.

The match was played at Daytona Beach Municipal Stadium.