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Dayton Dutch Lions vs Cincinnati Dutch Lions — USL League Two 2018

Dayton Dutch Lions
Dayton Dutch Lions
PST
23:00
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
6/5/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 20Dayton Outpatient Center Stadium (Dayton, Ohio)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dayton Dutch Lions22%
×Draw23%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dayton Dutch Lions
1.05
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.77

Cincinnati Dutch Lions creates 69% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 5 away

creates per match

Dayton Dutch Lions
0.90
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.00

allows per match

Dayton Dutch Lions
2.55
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.20

finishing

Dayton Dutch Lions+0.00on par
Cincinnati Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dayton Dutch Lions ↓

Cincinnati Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dayton Dutch Lions or draw
46%
Dayton Dutch Lions or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
77%
Draw or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
78%

Winning margin

Dayton Dutch Lions wins by 2+
8%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Dayton Dutch Lions 1+ goals
65%
Dayton Dutch Lions 2+ goals
28%
Dayton Dutch Lions 3+ goals
9%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 1+ goals
83%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 2+ goals
53%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Dayton Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
29%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dayton Dutch Lions at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.55 · 42 matches

Cincinnati Dutch Lions away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dayton Dutch Lions attack 0.90 + Cincinnati Dutch Lions defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Cincinnati Dutch Lions attack 1.00 + Dayton Dutch Lions defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dayton Dutch Lions scores more
22%
level
23%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions scores more
54%

Cincinnati Dutch Lions at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cincinnati Dutch Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dayton Dutch Lions face Cincinnati Dutch Lions (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Dayton Dutch Lions hosting Cincinnati Dutch Lions. Match starts June 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dayton Dutch Lions host Cincinnati Dutch Lions at Dayton Outpatient Center Stadium (Dayton, Ohio).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.