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Cincinnati Dutch Lions vs Dayton Dutch Lions — USL League Two 2018

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
FT
2 – 0
Dayton Dutch Lions
Dayton Dutch Lions
6/21/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 1Northern Kentucky University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cincinnati Dutch Lions68%
×Draw17%
Dayton Dutch Lions15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
2.63
Dayton Dutch Lions
1.18

Cincinnati Dutch Lions creates 123% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 40 away

creates per match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
2.67
Dayton Dutch Lions
1.02

allows per match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.33
Dayton Dutch Lions
2.58

finishing

Cincinnati Dutch Lions+0.00on par
Dayton Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cincinnati Dutch Lions ↓

Dayton Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Cincinnati Dutch Lions or draw
85%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions or Dayton Dutch Lions
83%
Draw or Dayton Dutch Lions
32%

Winning margin

Cincinnati Dutch Lions wins by 2+
46%
Dayton Dutch Lions wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cincinnati Dutch Lions 1+ goals
93%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 2+ goals
73%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3+ goals
48%
Dayton Dutch Lions 1+ goals
69%
Dayton Dutch Lions 2+ goals
33%
Dayton Dutch Lions 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cincinnati Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
82%
Dayton Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cincinnati Dutch Lions at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Dayton Dutch Lions away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.58 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions attack 2.67 + Dayton Dutch Lions defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.63

Dayton Dutch Lions attack 1.02 + Cincinnati Dutch Lions defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Cincinnati Dutch Lions scores more
68%
level
17%
Dayton Dutch Lions scores more
15%

Cincinnati Dutch Lions at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Cincinnati Dutch Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cincinnati Dutch Lions vs Dayton Dutch Lions

Cincinnati Dutch Lions beat Dayton Dutch Lions 2-0 in USL League Two on June 21, 2019.

The match was played at Northern Kentucky University Stadium.