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Dayton Dutch Lions vs Chicago Fire II — USL League Two 2018

Dayton Dutch Lions
Dayton Dutch Lions
FT
3 – 5
Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire IIadvanced
7/20/2018USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Semi-finalsValley Stadium (West Des Moines, Iowa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dayton Dutch Lions13%
×Draw16%
Chicago Fire II70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dayton Dutch Lions
1.07
Chicago Fire II
2.65

Chicago Fire II creates 148% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 21 away

creates per match

Dayton Dutch Lions
0.90
Chicago Fire II
2.76

allows per match

Dayton Dutch Lions
2.55
Chicago Fire II
1.24

finishing

Dayton Dutch Lions+0.00on par
Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dayton Dutch Lions ↓

Chicago Fire II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Dayton Dutch Lions or draw
30%
Dayton Dutch Lions or Chicago Fire II
84%
Draw or Chicago Fire II
87%

Winning margin

Dayton Dutch Lions wins by 2+
5%
Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Dayton Dutch Lions 1+ goals
66%
Dayton Dutch Lions 2+ goals
29%
Dayton Dutch Lions 3+ goals
9%
Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
93%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
74%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Dayton Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
16%
Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dayton Dutch Lions at home — creates 0.90, concedes 2.55 · 42 matches

Chicago Fire II away — creates 2.76, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dayton Dutch Lions attack 0.90 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Chicago Fire II attack 2.76 + Dayton Dutch Lions defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Dayton Dutch Lions scores more
13%
level
16%
Chicago Fire II scores more
70%

Chicago Fire II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dayton Dutch Lions 3 – 5 Chicago Fire II

Chicago Fire II beat Dayton Dutch Lions 5-3 in USL League Two on July 20, 2018.

The match was played at Valley Stadium (West Des Moines, Iowa).