Davao Aguilas 5–2 Philippine Air Force

Davao Aguilas

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Philippine Air Force

7/14/2024

PFL · Round 11Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Davao Aguilas79%

×Draw12%

Philippine Air Force9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Davao AguilasExpected goals in this matchPhilippine Air Force

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.51

1.19

Davao Aguilas

3.51

Philippine Air Force

1.19

Davao Aguilas creates 195% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 9 away

2.03

creates per match

1.44

0.93

allows per match

5.00

creates per match

Davao Aguilas

2.03

Philippine Air Force

1.44

allows per match

Davao Aguilas

0.93

Philippine Air Force

5.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Davao Aguilas+0.00on par

Philippine Air Force+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Davao Aguilas ↓

Philippine Air Force →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–06%

4–17%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Davao Aguilas or draw

91%

Davao Aguilas or Philippine Air Force

88%

Draw or Philippine Air Force

21%

Winning margin

Davao Aguilas wins by 2+

61%

Philippine Air Force wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Davao Aguilas 1+ goals

97%

Davao Aguilas 2+ goals

86%

Davao Aguilas 3+ goals

66%

Philippine Air Force 1+ goals

70%

Philippine Air Force 2+ goals

33%

Philippine Air Force 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Davao Aguilas (draw refunded)

90%

Philippine Air Force (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Davao Aguilas at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

Philippine Air Force away — creates 1.44, concedes 5.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Davao Aguilas attack 2.03 + Philippine Air Force defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.51

Philippine Air Force attack 1.44 + Davao Aguilas defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Davao Aguilas scores more

79%

level

12%

Philippine Air Force scores more

9%

Davao Aguilas at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Davao Aguilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff