Davao Aguilas 6–0 Manila Montet: Result & Stats

Davao Aguilas

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Manila Montet

4/28/2024

PFL · Round 4Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Davao Aguilas95%

×Draw3%

Manila Montet1%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Davao AguilasExpected goals in this matchManila Montet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.64

0.47

Davao Aguilas

4.64

Manila Montet

0.47

Davao Aguilas creates 887% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 8 away

2.03

creates per match

0.00

0.93

allows per match

7.25

creates per match

Davao Aguilas

2.03

Manila Montet

0.00

allows per match

Davao Aguilas

0.93

Manila Montet

7.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Davao Aguilas+0.00on par

Manila Montet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Davao Aguilas ↓

Manila Montet →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–12%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–014%

4–17%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (14%) · grid covers 62% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

69%31%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Davao Aguilas or draw

99%

Davao Aguilas or Manila Montet

97%

Draw or Manila Montet

5%

Winning margin

Davao Aguilas wins by 2+

87%

Manila Montet wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Davao Aguilas 1+ goals

99%

Davao Aguilas 2+ goals

93%

Davao Aguilas 3+ goals

81%

Manila Montet 1+ goals

37%

Manila Montet 2+ goals

8%

Manila Montet 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Davao Aguilas (draw refunded)

99%

Manila Montet (draw refunded)

1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Davao Aguilas at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

Manila Montet away — creates 0.00, concedes 7.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Davao Aguilas attack 2.03 + Manila Montet defence 7.25 → ÷2 → 4.64

Manila Montet attack 0.00 + Davao Aguilas defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Davao Aguilas scores more

95%

level

3%

Manila Montet scores more

1%

Davao Aguilas at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Davao Aguilas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff