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Dauphins Noirs vs TP Mazembe — Ligue 1 2019

Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
FT
2 – 0
TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
5/20/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade de l'Unité de Virunga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Dauphins Noirs24%
×Draw30%
TP Mazembe46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dauphins Noirs
0.80
TP Mazembe
1.23

TP Mazembe creates 54% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 97 away

creates per match

Dauphins Noirs
1.06
TP Mazembe
1.61

allows per match

Dauphins Noirs
0.84
TP Mazembe
0.53

finishing

Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par
TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dauphins Noirs ↓

TP Mazembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dauphins Noirs or draw
54%
Dauphins Noirs or TP Mazembe
70%
Draw or TP Mazembe
76%

Winning margin

Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
8%
TP Mazembe wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
55%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
19%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
5%
TP Mazembe 1+ goals
71%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
35%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
34%
TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dauphins Noirs at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 69 matches

TP Mazembe away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dauphins Noirs attack 1.06 + TP Mazembe defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.80

TP Mazembe attack 1.61 + Dauphins Noirs defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dauphins Noirs scores more
24%
level
30%
TP Mazembe scores more
46%

TP Mazembe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dauphins Noirs 2 – 0 TP Mazembe

Dauphins Noirs beat TP Mazembe 2-0 in Ligue 1 on May 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité de Virunga in Goma.