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Dauphins Noirs vs RCK — Ligue 1 2019

Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
FT
1 – 0
RCK
RCK
10/25/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade de l'Unité de Virunga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dauphins Noirs50%
×Draw29%
RCK21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dauphins Noirs
1.31
RCK
0.74

Dauphins Noirs creates 77% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

creates per match

Dauphins Noirs
1.06
RCK
0.65

allows per match

Dauphins Noirs
0.84
RCK
1.56

finishing

Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par
RCK+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dauphins Noirs ↓

RCK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dauphins Noirs or draw
79%
Dauphins Noirs or RCK
71%
Draw or RCK
50%

Winning margin

Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
24%
RCK wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
73%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
38%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
14%
RCK 1+ goals
52%
RCK 2+ goals
17%
RCK 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
70%
RCK (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dauphins Noirs at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 69 matches

RCK away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dauphins Noirs attack 1.06 + RCK defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

RCK attack 0.65 + Dauphins Noirs defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dauphins Noirs scores more
50%
level
29%
RCK scores more
21%

Dauphins Noirs at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dauphins Noirs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dauphins Noirs vs RCK

Dauphins Noirs beat RCK 1-0 in Ligue 1 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité de Virunga in Goma.