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Dauphins Noirs vs Maniema Union — Ligue 1 2019

Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Maniema Union
Maniema Union
1/10/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Dauphins Noirs28%
×Draw30%
Maniema Union41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dauphins Noirs
0.88
Maniema Union
1.13

Maniema Union creates 28% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 93 away

creates per match

Dauphins Noirs
1.06
Maniema Union
1.42

allows per match

Dauphins Noirs
0.84
Maniema Union
0.70

finishing

Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par
Maniema Union+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dauphins Noirs ↓

Maniema Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dauphins Noirs or draw
59%
Dauphins Noirs or Maniema Union
70%
Draw or Maniema Union
72%

Winning margin

Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
10%
Maniema Union wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
59%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
22%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
6%
Maniema Union 1+ goals
68%
Maniema Union 2+ goals
31%
Maniema Union 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
41%
Maniema Union (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dauphins Noirs at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 69 matches

Maniema Union away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dauphins Noirs attack 1.06 + Maniema Union defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.88

Maniema Union attack 1.42 + Dauphins Noirs defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dauphins Noirs scores more
28%
level
30%
Maniema Union scores more
41%

Maniema Union at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Maniema Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Dauphins Noirs 0–1 Maniema Union

Maniema Union beat Dauphins Noirs 1-0 in Ligue 1 on January 10, 2026.