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Dauphins Noirs vs Groupe Bazano — Ligue 1 2019

Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
CANC
13:30
Groupe Bazano
Groupe Bazano
6/12/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade de l'Unité de Virunga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Dauphins Noirs45%
×Draw31%
Groupe Bazano24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dauphins Noirs
1.17
Groupe Bazano
0.77

Dauphins Noirs creates 52% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 73 away

creates per match

Dauphins Noirs
1.06
Groupe Bazano
0.70

allows per match

Dauphins Noirs
0.84
Groupe Bazano
1.27

finishing

Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par
Groupe Bazano+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dauphins Noirs ↓

Groupe Bazano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dauphins Noirs or draw
76%
Dauphins Noirs or Groupe Bazano
69%
Draw or Groupe Bazano
55%

Winning margin

Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
20%
Groupe Bazano wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
69%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
33%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
11%
Groupe Bazano 1+ goals
54%
Groupe Bazano 2+ goals
18%
Groupe Bazano 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
65%
Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dauphins Noirs at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.84 · 69 matches

Groupe Bazano away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dauphins Noirs attack 1.06 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Groupe Bazano attack 0.70 + Dauphins Noirs defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dauphins Noirs scores more
45%
level
31%
Groupe Bazano scores more
24%

Dauphins Noirs at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dauphins Noirs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dauphins Noirs vs Groupe Bazano — Match Preview

Dauphins Noirs face Groupe Bazano on June 12, 2023 in this Ligue 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dauphins Noirs host Groupe Bazano at Stade de l'Unité de Virunga.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.