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Darya Babol vs Shahin Bandar Ameri — Azadegan League 2018

Darya Babol
Darya Babol
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shahin Bandar Ameri
Shahin Bandar Ameri
4/14/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 27Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Darya Babol41%
×Draw30%
Shahin Bandar Ameri29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darya Babol
1.17
Shahin Bandar Ameri
0.93

Darya Babol creates 26% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 10 away

creates per match

Darya Babol
1.15
Shahin Bandar Ameri
1.00

allows per match

Darya Babol
0.85
Shahin Bandar Ameri
1.20

finishing

Darya Babol+0.00on par
Shahin Bandar Ameri+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darya Babol ↓

Shahin Bandar Ameri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Darya Babol or draw
71%
Darya Babol or Shahin Bandar Ameri
70%
Draw or Shahin Bandar Ameri
59%

Winning margin

Darya Babol wins by 2+
18%
Shahin Bandar Ameri wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Darya Babol 1+ goals
69%
Darya Babol 2+ goals
33%
Darya Babol 3+ goals
11%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 1+ goals
61%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 2+ goals
24%
Shahin Bandar Ameri 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Darya Babol (draw refunded)
59%
Shahin Bandar Ameri (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darya Babol at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Shahin Bandar Ameri away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darya Babol attack 1.15 + Shahin Bandar Ameri defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Shahin Bandar Ameri attack 1.00 + Darya Babol defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Darya Babol scores more
41%
level
30%
Shahin Bandar Ameri scores more
29%

Darya Babol at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Darya Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Darya Babol 2–0 Shahin Bandar Ameri

Darya Babol beat Shahin Bandar Ameri 2-0 in Azadegan League on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium in Babol.