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Darya Babol vs Saipa — Azadegan League 2018

Darya Babol
Darya Babol
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Saipa
Saipa
2/2/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 18Simorgh Martyrs Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Darya Babol40%
×Draw32%
Saipa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darya Babol
1.03
Saipa
0.80

Darya Babol creates 29% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 84 away

creates per match

Darya Babol
1.15
Saipa
0.75

allows per match

Darya Babol
0.85
Saipa
0.92

finishing

Darya Babol+0.00on par
Saipa+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darya Babol ↓

Saipa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Darya Babol or draw
72%
Darya Babol or Saipa
68%
Draw or Saipa
60%

Winning margin

Darya Babol wins by 2+
16%
Saipa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Darya Babol 1+ goals
64%
Darya Babol 2+ goals
28%
Darya Babol 3+ goals
9%
Saipa 1+ goals
55%
Saipa 2+ goals
19%
Saipa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Darya Babol (draw refunded)
59%
Saipa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darya Babol at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Saipa away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.92 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darya Babol attack 1.15 + Saipa defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Saipa attack 0.75 + Darya Babol defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Darya Babol scores more
40%
level
32%
Saipa scores more
28%

Darya Babol at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Darya Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Darya Babol vs Saipa

Saipa beat Darya Babol 2-0 in Azadegan League on February 2, 2024.

The match was played at Simorgh Martyrs Stadium in Ziar Kola.