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Darya Babol vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh — Azadegan League 2018

Darya Babol
Darya Babol
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
3/17/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 24Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Darya Babol44%
×Draw31%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darya Babol
1.15
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.81

Darya Babol creates 42% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 84 away

creates per match

Darya Babol
1.15
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.77

allows per match

Darya Babol
0.85
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.15

finishing

Darya Babol+0.00on par
Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darya Babol ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Darya Babol or draw
74%
Darya Babol or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
69%
Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
56%

Winning margin

Darya Babol wins by 2+
19%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Darya Babol 1+ goals
68%
Darya Babol 2+ goals
32%
Darya Babol 3+ goals
11%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
56%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
19%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Darya Babol (draw refunded)
63%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darya Babol at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darya Babol attack 1.15 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Darya Babol defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Darya Babol scores more
44%
level
31%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
26%

Darya Babol at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Darya Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Darya Babol 1–0 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Darya Babol beat Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1-0 in Azadegan League on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium in Babol.