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Darya Babol vs Arman Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

Darya Babol
Darya Babol
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
10/25/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 10Shohada Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Darya Babol46%
×Draw29%
Arman Gohar25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darya Babol
1.29
Arman Gohar
0.88

Darya Babol creates 47% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 68 away

creates per match

Darya Babol
1.15
Arman Gohar
0.90

allows per match

Darya Babol
0.85
Arman Gohar
1.44

finishing

Darya Babol+0.00on par
Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darya Babol ↓

Arman Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Darya Babol or draw
75%
Darya Babol or Arman Gohar
71%
Draw or Arman Gohar
54%

Winning margin

Darya Babol wins by 2+
21%
Arman Gohar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Darya Babol 1+ goals
72%
Darya Babol 2+ goals
37%
Darya Babol 3+ goals
14%
Arman Gohar 1+ goals
59%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
22%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Darya Babol (draw refunded)
64%
Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darya Babol at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.44 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darya Babol attack 1.15 + Arman Gohar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Arman Gohar attack 0.90 + Darya Babol defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Darya Babol scores more
46%
level
29%
Arman Gohar scores more
25%

Darya Babol at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Darya Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Darya Babol 0–0 Arman Gohar

Darya Babol and Arman Gohar drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on October 25, 2022.

The match was played at Shohada Stadium in Babol.