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Darya Babol vs Ario Eslamshahr — Azadegan League 2018

Darya Babol
Darya Babol
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ario Eslamshahr
Ario Eslamshahr
11/22/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 13Simorgh Martyrs Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Darya Babol39%
×Draw33%
Ario Eslamshahr29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darya Babol
0.99
Ario Eslamshahr
0.81

Darya Babol creates 22% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

creates per match

Darya Babol
1.15
Ario Eslamshahr
0.78

allows per match

Darya Babol
0.85
Ario Eslamshahr
0.84

finishing

Darya Babol+0.00on par
Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darya Babol ↓

Ario Eslamshahr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Darya Babol or draw
71%
Darya Babol or Ario Eslamshahr
67%
Draw or Ario Eslamshahr
61%

Winning margin

Darya Babol wins by 2+
15%
Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Darya Babol 1+ goals
63%
Darya Babol 2+ goals
26%
Darya Babol 3+ goals
8%
Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals
56%
Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals
19%
Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Darya Babol (draw refunded)
57%
Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darya Babol at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Ario Eslamshahr away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darya Babol attack 1.15 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.99

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Darya Babol defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Darya Babol scores more
39%
level
33%
Ario Eslamshahr scores more
29%

Darya Babol at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Darya Babol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Darya Babol 1–2 Ario Eslamshahr

Ario Eslamshahr beat Darya Babol 2-1 in Azadegan League on November 22, 2023.

The match was played at Simorgh Martyrs Stadium in Ziar Kola.