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Darwen vs Middlesbrough W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Darwen
Darwen
FT
1 – 2
Middlesbrough W
Middlesbrough W
10/13/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd Round QualifyingThe Anchor Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Darwen17%
×Draw17%
Middlesbrough W66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darwen
1.33
Middlesbrough W
2.73

Middlesbrough W creates 105% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Darwen
0.67
Middlesbrough W
1.80

allows per match

Darwen
3.67
Middlesbrough W
2.00

finishing

Darwen+0.00on par
Middlesbrough W+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darwen ↓

Middlesbrough W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Darwen or draw
34%
Darwen or Middlesbrough W
83%
Draw or Middlesbrough W
83%

Winning margin

Darwen wins by 2+
7%
Middlesbrough W wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Darwen 1+ goals
74%
Darwen 2+ goals
38%
Darwen 3+ goals
15%
Middlesbrough W 1+ goals
93%
Middlesbrough W 2+ goals
75%
Middlesbrough W 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Darwen (draw refunded)
20%
Middlesbrough W (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darwen at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Middlesbrough W away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darwen attack 0.67 + Middlesbrough W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Middlesbrough W attack 1.80 + Darwen defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Darwen scores more
17%
level
17%
Middlesbrough W scores more
66%

Middlesbrough W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Middlesbrough W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Darwen 1–2 Middlesbrough W

Middlesbrough W beat Darwen 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at The Anchor Ground in Darwen, Lancashire.