Darwen 0–4 Blackburn Rovers W: Result & Stats

Darwen

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Blackburn Rovers W

12/10/2023

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundThe Anchor Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Darwen28%

×Draw18%

Blackburn Rovers W54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DarwenExpected goals in this matchBlackburn Rovers W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

2.90

Darwen

2.08

Blackburn Rovers W

2.90

Blackburn Rovers W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

0.67

creates per match

2.13

3.67

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Darwen

0.67

Blackburn Rovers W

2.13

allows per match

Darwen

3.67

Blackburn Rovers W

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darwen+0.00on par

Blackburn Rovers W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darwen ↓

Blackburn Rovers W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–01%

1–14%

1–26%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–43%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Darwen or draw

46%

Darwen or Blackburn Rovers W

82%

Draw or Blackburn Rovers W

72%

Winning margin

Darwen wins by 2+

14%

Blackburn Rovers W wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Darwen 1+ goals

87%

Darwen 2+ goals

61%

Darwen 3+ goals

34%

Blackburn Rovers W 1+ goals

94%

Blackburn Rovers W 2+ goals

78%

Blackburn Rovers W 3+ goals

54%

Draw no bet

Darwen (draw refunded)

34%

Blackburn Rovers W (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Darwen at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Blackburn Rovers W away — creates 2.13, concedes 3.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Darwen attack 0.67 + Blackburn Rovers W defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Blackburn Rovers W attack 2.13 + Darwen defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Darwen scores more

28%

level

18%

Blackburn Rovers W scores more

54%

Blackburn Rovers W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Blackburn Rovers W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff