Darvel 2–2 Brechin: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Darvel

Pens

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Brechin

R. Thomson 120+12' (pen), 80'

J. Allan 120+10' (pen)

S. Ferguson 120+8' (pen)

R. Caldwell 120+7' (pen)

D. Miller 120+2' (pen)

D. Meggatt 45+1'

M. Kucheryavyi 120+9' (pen)

J. Bain 120+6' (pen)

M. MacKintosh 120+5' (pen), 88'

K. Inglis 120+1' (pen), 38'

12/14/2021

FA Cup · 3rd Round ReplaysRecreation Park Darvel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Darvel35%

×Draw20%

Brechin45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DarvelExpected goals in this matchBrechin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

2.33

Darvel

2.04

Brechin

2.33

Brechin creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

2.75

creates per match

2.67

2.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Darvel

2.75

Brechin

2.67

allows per match

Darvel

2.00

Brechin

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darvel+0.00on par

Brechin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darvel ↓

Brechin →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Darvel or draw

55%

Darvel or Brechin

80%

Draw or Brechin

65%

Winning margin

Darvel wins by 2+

19%

Brechin wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Darvel 1+ goals

87%

Darvel 2+ goals

60%

Darvel 3+ goals

33%

Brechin 1+ goals

90%

Brechin 2+ goals

67%

Brechin 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Darvel (draw refunded)

44%

Brechin (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Darvel at home — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Brechin away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Darvel attack 2.75 + Brechin defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Brechin attack 2.67 + Darvel defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Darvel scores more

35%

level

20%

Brechin scores more

45%

Brechin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brechin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

S. Ferguson← J. Kirkpatrick

20'

R. Thomson← A. Stirling

38'

K. Inglis↳ M. Kucheryavyi

45+1'

D. Meggatt↳ D. Miller

57'

58'

58'

59'

68'

R. Caldwell← A. MacKenzie

76'

G. Wood← M. Scott

80'

R. Thomson

83'

J. Milne← M. Paton

83'

D. Cox← J. Wade

88'

M. MacKintosh

90'

M. Kucheriavyi

120+1'

K. InglisPenalty

120+2'

D. MillerPenalty

120+3'

G. WoodMissed penalty

120+4'

I. McShaneMissed penalty

120+5'

M. MacKintoshPenalty

120+6'

J. BainPenalty

120+7'

R. CaldwellPenalty

120+8'

S. FergusonPenalty

120+9'

M. KucheryavyiPenalty

120+10'

J. AllanPenalty

120+11'

J. MilneMissed penalty

120+12'

R. ThomsonPenalty

Darvel

Brechin

⚽

▼

⚽2

⚽2

⚽A

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽A

▼

▼

Manager: M. Kennedy

12'▲S. Ferguson←▼J. Kirkpatrick

20'▲R. Thomson←▼A. Stirling

68'▲R. Caldwell←▼A. MacKenzie

Darvel substitutes

17Ferguson11Thomson20Caldwell14Boland21Avci

Manager: A. Kirk

76'▲G. Wood←▼M. Scott

83'▲J. Milne←▼M. Paton

83'▲D. Cox←▼J. Wade

Brechin substitutes

9Wood17Milne7Cox5Bollan1Winter15Cruickshank18Loudon