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Dartford W vs Keynsham Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Dartford W
Dartford W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Keynsham Town W
Keynsham Town W
11/23/2025FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dartford W60%
×Draw18%
Keynsham Town W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dartford W
2.77
Keynsham Town W
1.65

Dartford W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Dartford W
3.40
Keynsham Town W
2.29

allows per match

Dartford W
1.00
Keynsham Town W
2.14

finishing

Dartford W+0.00on par
Keynsham Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dartford W ↓

Keynsham Town W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Dartford W or draw
78%
Dartford W or Keynsham Town W
82%
Draw or Keynsham Town W
40%

Winning margin

Dartford W wins by 2+
40%
Keynsham Town W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dartford W 1+ goals
94%
Dartford W 2+ goals
76%
Dartford W 3+ goals
51%
Keynsham Town W 1+ goals
81%
Keynsham Town W 2+ goals
49%
Keynsham Town W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Dartford W (draw refunded)
73%
Keynsham Town W (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dartford W at home — creates 3.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Keynsham Town W away — creates 2.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dartford W attack 3.40 + Keynsham Town W defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.77

Keynsham Town W attack 2.29 + Dartford W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Dartford W scores more
60%
level
18%
Keynsham Town W scores more
22%

Dartford W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dartford W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Dartford W 2–1 Keynsham Town W

Dartford W beat Keynsham Town W 2-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 23, 2025.