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Dartford vs Folkestone Invicta — League #58 2026

Dartford
Dartford
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Folkestone Invicta
Folkestone Invicta
S. Carruthers 88'
A. Yusuff 79'
J. Pigott 33'
12/13/2025League #58League #58 · Round 22Princes Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dartford38%
×Draw23%
Folkestone Invicta40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dartford
1.69
Folkestone Invicta
1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Dartford
2.38
Folkestone Invicta
2.33

allows per match

Dartford
1.15
Folkestone Invicta
1.00

finishing

Dartford+0.00on par
Folkestone Invicta+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dartford ↓

Folkestone Invicta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Dartford or draw
60%
Dartford or Folkestone Invicta
77%
Draw or Folkestone Invicta
62%

Winning margin

Dartford wins by 2+
19%
Folkestone Invicta wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dartford 1+ goals
82%
Dartford 2+ goals
50%
Dartford 3+ goals
24%
Folkestone Invicta 1+ goals
82%
Folkestone Invicta 2+ goals
52%
Folkestone Invicta 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dartford (draw refunded)
49%
Folkestone Invicta (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dartford at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Folkestone Invicta away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dartford attack 2.38 + Folkestone Invicta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Folkestone Invicta attack 2.33 + Dartford defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dartford scores more
38%
level
23%
Folkestone Invicta scores more
40%

Folkestone Invicta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Folkestone Invicta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
J. Pigott
79'
A. Yusuff
88'
S. Carruthers
Dartford
Folkestone
A. Pennock
Manager: A. Pennock
A. Drury
Manager: A. Drury

League #58: Dartford 1–2 Folkestone Invicta

Folkestone Invicta beat Dartford 2-1 in League #58 on December 13, 2025.

Goals: J. Pigott (33'), A. Yusuff (79'), S. Carruthers (88').

The match was played at Princes Park in Dartford, Kent.