Dartford 1–6 Charlton: Result & Stats

Dartford

FT

1 – 6

HT: 1 – 4

Charlton

C. Jones 40'

Trialist 85'

T. Watson 66'

T. Campbell 42', 13'

D. Kanu 24'

N. Asiimwe 22'

7/6/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Princes Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dartford10%

×Draw14%

Charlton76%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DartfordExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

2.93

Dartford

1.00

Charlton

2.93

Charlton creates 193% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

2.86

3.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Dartford

1.00

Charlton

2.86

allows per match

Dartford

3.00

Charlton

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dartford+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dartford ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–29%

0–38%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Dartford or draw

24%

Dartford or Charlton

86%

Draw or Charlton

90%

Winning margin

Dartford wins by 2+

3%

Charlton wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

Dartford 1+ goals

63%

Dartford 2+ goals

26%

Dartford 3+ goals

8%

Charlton 1+ goals

94%

Charlton 2+ goals

78%

Charlton 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Dartford (draw refunded)

12%

Charlton (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dartford at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

Charlton away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dartford attack 1.00 + Charlton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Charlton attack 2.86 + Dartford defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Dartford scores more

10%

level

14%

Charlton scores more

76%

Charlton at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

T. Campbell

22'

N. Asiimwe

24'

40'

42'

66'

85'

Trialist

Dartford

Charlton

Manager: A. Pennock

Manager: D. Holden