Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dartford vs Canvey Island — League #58 2026

Dartford
Dartford
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Canvey Island
Canvey Island
O. Box 69'
W. George 67' (pen)
M. Fiddes 6'
C. Stimson 5'
9/6/2025League #58League #58 · Round 6Princes Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dartford69%
×Draw18%
Canvey Island13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dartford
2.35
Canvey Island
0.91

Dartford creates 158% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Dartford
2.38
Canvey Island
0.67

allows per match

Dartford
1.15
Canvey Island
2.33

finishing

Dartford+0.00on par
Canvey Island+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dartford ↓

Canvey Island →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dartford or draw
87%
Dartford or Canvey Island
82%
Draw or Canvey Island
31%

Winning margin

Dartford wins by 2+
46%
Canvey Island wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Dartford 1+ goals
90%
Dartford 2+ goals
68%
Dartford 3+ goals
41%
Canvey Island 1+ goals
60%
Canvey Island 2+ goals
23%
Canvey Island 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dartford (draw refunded)
84%
Canvey Island (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dartford at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Canvey Island away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dartford attack 2.38 + Canvey Island defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.35

Canvey Island attack 0.67 + Dartford defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Dartford scores more
69%
level
18%
Canvey Island scores more
13%

Dartford at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Dartford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
C. Stimson
6'
M. Fiddes
67'
W. GeorgePenalty
69'
O. Box
Dartford
Canvey
A. Pennock
Manager: A. Pennock
B. Wellmen
Manager: B. Wellmen

League #58: Dartford 2–2 Canvey Island

Dartford and Canvey Island drew 2-2 in League #58 on September 6, 2025.

Goals: C. Stimson (5'), M. Fiddes (6'), W. George (67' pen), O. Box (69').

The match was played at Princes Park in Dartford, Kent.