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Darra vs Loiske — Suomen Cup 2018

Darra
Darra
FT
0 – 11
Loiske
Loiske
3/14/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundKauppi tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Darra5%
×Draw7%
Loiske88%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darra
1.33
Loiske
5.08

Loiske creates 282% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Darra
0.67
Loiske
3.83

allows per match

Darra
6.33
Loiske
2.00

finishing

Darra+0.00on par
Loiske+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darra ↓

Loiske →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–35%
0–46%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–24%
1–36%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–34%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 56% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
69%31%

Double chance

Darra or draw
12%
Darra or Loiske
93%
Draw or Loiske
95%

Winning margin

Darra wins by 2+
2%
Loiske wins by 2+
75%

Team goals

Darra 1+ goals
74%
Darra 2+ goals
38%
Darra 3+ goals
15%
Loiske 1+ goals
99%
Loiske 2+ goals
95%
Loiske 3+ goals
84%

Draw no bet

Darra (draw refunded)
5%
Loiske (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darra at home — creates 0.67, concedes 6.33 · 3 matches

Loiske away — creates 3.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darra attack 0.67 + Loiske defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Loiske attack 3.83 + Darra defence 6.33 → ÷2 → 5.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Darra scores more
5%
level
7%
Loiske scores more
88%

Loiske at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Loiske will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Darra 0–11 Loiske

Loiske beat Darra 11-0 in Suomen Cup on March 14, 2025.

The match was played at Kauppi tekonurmi in Tampere.