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Darnes vs Shabaab al Jabal — Premier League 2019

Darnes
Darnes
FT
1 – 1
Shabaab al Jabal
Shabaab al Jabal
1/26/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Darnes50%
×Draw29%
Shabaab al Jabal21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darnes
1.30
Shabaab al Jabal
0.72

Darnes creates 81% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 29 away

creates per match

Darnes
0.81
Shabaab al Jabal
0.79

allows per match

Darnes
0.65
Shabaab al Jabal
1.79

finishing

Darnes+0.00on par
Shabaab al Jabal+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darnes ↓

Shabaab al Jabal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Darnes or draw
79%
Darnes or Shabaab al Jabal
71%
Draw or Shabaab al Jabal
50%

Winning margin

Darnes wins by 2+
24%
Shabaab al Jabal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Darnes 1+ goals
73%
Darnes 2+ goals
37%
Darnes 3+ goals
14%
Shabaab al Jabal 1+ goals
51%
Shabaab al Jabal 2+ goals
16%
Shabaab al Jabal 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Darnes (draw refunded)
71%
Shabaab al Jabal (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darnes at home — creates 0.81, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Shabaab al Jabal away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darnes attack 0.81 + Shabaab al Jabal defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.30

Shabaab al Jabal attack 0.79 + Darnes defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Darnes scores more
50%
level
29%
Shabaab al Jabal scores more
21%

Darnes at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Darnes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Darnes 1–1 Shabaab al Jabal

Darnes and Shabaab al Jabal drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 26, 2021.