Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Darnes vs Ngom Ajdabiya — Premier League 2019

Darnes
Darnes
FT
1 – 0
Ngom Ajdabiya
Ngom Ajdabiya
6/11/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Darnes54%
×Draw29%
Ngom Ajdabiya17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darnes
1.31
Ngom Ajdabiya
0.60

Darnes creates 118% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 11 away

creates per match

Darnes
0.81
Ngom Ajdabiya
0.55

allows per match

Darnes
0.65
Ngom Ajdabiya
1.82

finishing

Darnes+0.00on par
Ngom Ajdabiya+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darnes ↓

Ngom Ajdabiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Darnes or draw
83%
Darnes or Ngom Ajdabiya
71%
Draw or Ngom Ajdabiya
46%

Winning margin

Darnes wins by 2+
26%
Ngom Ajdabiya wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Darnes 1+ goals
73%
Darnes 2+ goals
38%
Darnes 3+ goals
14%
Ngom Ajdabiya 1+ goals
45%
Ngom Ajdabiya 2+ goals
12%
Ngom Ajdabiya 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Darnes (draw refunded)
76%
Ngom Ajdabiya (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darnes at home — creates 0.81, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Ngom Ajdabiya away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darnes attack 0.81 + Ngom Ajdabiya defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.31

Ngom Ajdabiya attack 0.55 + Darnes defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Darnes scores more
54%
level
29%
Ngom Ajdabiya scores more
17%

Darnes at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Darnes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Darnes vs Ngom Ajdabiya

Darnes beat Ngom Ajdabiya 1-0 in Premier League on June 11, 2021.