Darnes 1–2 Khaleej Sart: Result & Stats

Darnes

FT

1 – 2

Khaleej Sart

7/4/2021

Premier League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Darnes45%

×Draw30%

Khaleej Sart25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DarnesExpected goals in this matchKhaleej Sart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.80

Darnes

1.20

Khaleej Sart

0.80

Darnes creates 50% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

0.81

creates per match

0.95

0.65

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Darnes

0.81

Khaleej Sart

0.95

allows per match

Darnes

0.65

Khaleej Sart

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darnes+0.00on par

Khaleej Sart+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darnes ↓

Khaleej Sart →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Darnes or draw

75%

Darnes or Khaleej Sart

70%

Draw or Khaleej Sart

55%

Winning margin

Darnes wins by 2+

20%

Khaleej Sart wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Darnes 1+ goals

70%

Darnes 2+ goals

34%

Darnes 3+ goals

12%

Khaleej Sart 1+ goals

55%

Khaleej Sart 2+ goals

19%

Khaleej Sart 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Darnes (draw refunded)

65%

Khaleej Sart (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darnes at home — creates 0.81, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Khaleej Sart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darnes attack 0.81 + Khaleej Sart defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.20

Khaleej Sart attack 0.95 + Darnes defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Darnes scores more

45%

level

30%

Khaleej Sart scores more

25%

Darnes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Darnes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff