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Darnes vs Al-Tahaddi — Premier League 2019

Darnes
Darnes
FT
0 – 0
Al-Tahaddi
Al-Tahaddi
5/18/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Darnes42%
×Draw34%
Al-Tahaddi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Darnes
0.97
Al-Tahaddi
0.65

Darnes creates 49% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 58 away

creates per match

Darnes
0.81
Al-Tahaddi
0.64

allows per match

Darnes
0.65
Al-Tahaddi
1.14

finishing

Darnes+0.00on par
Al-Tahaddi+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darnes ↓

Al-Tahaddi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Darnes or draw
76%
Darnes or Al-Tahaddi
66%
Draw or Al-Tahaddi
58%

Winning margin

Darnes wins by 2+
16%
Al-Tahaddi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Darnes 1+ goals
62%
Darnes 2+ goals
25%
Darnes 3+ goals
7%
Al-Tahaddi 1+ goals
48%
Al-Tahaddi 2+ goals
14%
Al-Tahaddi 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Darnes (draw refunded)
64%
Al-Tahaddi (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darnes at home — creates 0.81, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Al-Tahaddi away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darnes attack 0.81 + Al-Tahaddi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.97

Al-Tahaddi attack 0.64 + Darnes defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Darnes scores more
42%
level
34%
Al-Tahaddi scores more
24%

Darnes at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Darnes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Darnes vs Al-Tahaddi

Darnes and Al-Tahaddi drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 18, 2023.