Darnes 1–0 Al Sadaqa: Result & Stats

Darnes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Sadaqa

4/19/2026

Premier League · Group C - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Darnes44%

×Draw33%

Al Sadaqa23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DarnesExpected goals in this matchAl Sadaqa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.66

Darnes

1.05

Al Sadaqa

0.66

Darnes creates 59% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 58 away

0.81

creates per match

0.66

0.65

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Darnes

0.81

Al Sadaqa

0.66

allows per match

Darnes

0.65

Al Sadaqa

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Darnes+0.00on par

Al Sadaqa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Darnes ↓

Al Sadaqa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Darnes or draw

77%

Darnes or Al Sadaqa

67%

Draw or Al Sadaqa

56%

Winning margin

Darnes wins by 2+

18%

Al Sadaqa wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Darnes 1+ goals

65%

Darnes 2+ goals

28%

Darnes 3+ goals

9%

Al Sadaqa 1+ goals

48%

Al Sadaqa 2+ goals

14%

Al Sadaqa 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Darnes (draw refunded)

66%

Al Sadaqa (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Darnes at home — creates 0.81, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Al Sadaqa away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Darnes attack 0.81 + Al Sadaqa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.05

Al Sadaqa attack 0.66 + Darnes defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Darnes scores more

44%

level

33%

Al Sadaqa scores more

23%

Darnes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Darnes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff